I Can See the Future!

I can see the future! My crystal ball tells me that after the debate tonight, various Republican talking heads will be interviewed and they will all say that John McCain won the debate. Amazingly enough, I also can see that various Obama supporters will say that Obama won the debate.

Andrew Sullivan will say Obama won and McCain disgraced himself. Hugh Hewitt will say Obama lost and alienated mainstream voters with his leftist views.

What I really hate are the so-called focus groups, where Frank Luntz or some other pollster interviews “undecided” voters. Hmmm, is it possible Frank that maybe when people are on national television for the first time in their lives that they may not reveal their true feelings, but might instead just say what they think people want to hear?

My advice: turn off the tv after the debate. Ignore the analysis. Wait 3 days. Then, if the daily tracking polls have moved (and you must wait the full three days because the tracking polls all cover three days of polling, so it takes that long to include all the post-debate polling), we will know if there was a real winner at the debate. As I write, the RCP tracker has Obama up by 5.5 points. Barring some sort of glaring mistake or total grand slam from either candidate, we will not truly know who won until we see whether that gap has grown or shrunk in Saturday’s polling.

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